What is the 1pctCO2 experiment?
1pctCO2 is an idealised ramp experiment. Starting from the pre-industrial control climate, the carbon dioxide concentration is increased by 1% every year, compounding, so it doubles after about 70 years and quadruples after roughly 140.
What it does
Like abrupt-4xCO2, this run is not meant to be realistic — no real-world
scenario raises CO2 on such a smooth, steady schedule. Instead of one instant
shock, though, 1pctCO2 applies the CO2 as a slow, clean ramp. That lets us
watch the climate respond to a gradually strengthening
, which is much closer to how the real world
warms over time.
Why we care
The steady ramp is what makes this experiment so useful:
- Transient Climate Response (TCR) — the warming at the moment CO2 doubles (around year 70) tells us how much the planet heats up while the ocean is still catching up.
- — because emissions accumulate smoothly, this run is the backbone for relating cumulative CO2 to warming, which underpins carbon budgets.
- It bridges the gap between the instantaneous
abrupt-4xCO2shock and the messier, forcing-richhistoricalrun.
1pctCO2 is one of the core experiments that every
model runs, so its results can be compared cleanly
from one model to the next.